DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/20 11:46

   Higher Tones Lead Livestock Higher

   The livestock complex is trending higher into Wednesday's noon hour as 
traders are seeing enough fundamental support to justify sending the contracts 
higher.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Stronger tones are leading the livestock contracts higher into Wednesday's 
noon hour as the market's fundamental support across both the beef and pork 
markets has been supportive this past week. Still no cash cattle trade has 
developed, but mild interest could begin to develop this afternoon but it's 
likely that trade is still delayed until Thursday or Friday. December corn is 
up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $7.30. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 212.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is finally trading higher as traders have mustered 
up some support and are leading the contracts mildly higher into Wednesday's 
noon hour. Last Friday the complex ran to new contract highs, and after a 
couple days of trading lower, traders are again feeling confident enough in the 
market's fundamentals to justify trading the contracts higher as they're away 
from immediate technical pressure and are closer to seeing what the market's 
cash cattle trade could be. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but 
asking prices in the South are noted at $185 to $186 but are still elusive in 
the North. It's expected that cash cattle prices will remain at least steady 
this week, but there is the potential that prices could trade mildly higher. 
October live cattle are up $0.65 at $186.32, December live cattle are up $0.57 
at $191.05 and February live cattle are up $0.52 at $195.45.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.78 ($301.34) and select down 
$1.87 ($279.91) with a movement of 127 loads (48.30 loads of choice, 29.41 
loads of select, 33.59 loads of trim and 15.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Even though the corn complex is fronting a mild $0.02 rally, the feeder 
cattle complex is back to trading higher which is likely because of the support 
seeping over from the live cattle complex and from the continued support of 
strong sales in the countryside. September feeders are up $0.90 at $254.40, 
October feeders are up $1.32 at $260.60 and November feeders are up $0.72 at 
$265.75. The stronger trade could continue through the week's end if the cash 
cattle market begins to trade higher as the rest of the market's fundamentals 
(strong feeder cattle sales, and moderate corn prices) remain supportive.

LEAN HOGS:

   With continued support of the cash market and mostly favorable news this 
week for pork cutout values, the lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher 
into Wednesday's hours even though the market is flirting with resistance 
pressures. October lean hogs are up $0.22 at $85.07, December lean hogs are up 
$0.70 at $76.95 and February lean hogs are up $0.72 at $79.92. I am somewhat 
surprised to see pork prices up $1.40 this morning and for the day's volume to 
already be close to 10,000 -- this comes to show that packers were shorter 
bought than assumed.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/19/2023 is up $0.09 at $86.67, and the 
actual index for 9/18/2023 is down $0.23 at $86.58. Hog prices are higher on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.40 with a weighted average price of 
$78.73, ranging from $75.00 to $80.00 on 9,660 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $78.16. Pork cutouts total 170.14 loads with 152.99 loads of pork 
cuts and 17.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.03, $101.10.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.