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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/18 06:17
Livestock Futures May Try to Regain Losses
Cattle futures have been wild since Friday with large price swings. The
maket fundamentals are supportive, but the market may be tired and in need of a
larger retracement. Hogs seemed to move in sympathy with cattle Tuesday, as
there was little to be bearish about.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $280.99 +3.22*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $125.75 +0.41**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It is interesting how cattle futures opened steady to lower and never looked
back Tuesday. As futures moved lower, selling increased as recent longs sold
out in case of a larger price retracement. The market is fundamentally
supported, but technically it is overbought and may see a larger price
retracement as the market may be getting tired, and fund traders are
substantially long the market. Feeder cattle prices this week have been lower
in most cases at sale barns. Buyers might have reached a threshold of what they
are willing to pay. Boxed beef prices soared on Tuesday, with choice up $4.40
and select up $5.07. Early indications are that cash might be higher this week,
but cattle have not yet been traded.
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