By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:02 a.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 14. It was last updated with additional information at 11:30 a.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 14.
**
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday lowered corn yields just a tick to 186 bushels per acre and slightly lowered corn production to 16.75 billion bushels in the first major reports since the government shutdown ended.
USDA also pegged soybean yields at 53 bpa with production lowered slightly to 4.253 billion bushels.
USDA released its Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for November on Friday after missing the October report due to the federal government shutdown.
Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral to slightly bullish for soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were slightly bullish for corn, neutral to slightly bullish for soybeans, and slightly bearish for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA lowered the corn yield just 0.7 bpa to 186 bpa, coming in higher than the pre-report average.
The lower yield number slightly reduced 2025-26 corn production by 62 million bushels (mb) to 16.752 billion bushels. For comparison, record production was 15.34 bb in the 2023-24 crop.
Planted acres for corn were 98.7 ma. Harvested acres are projected at 90 ma.
On the demand side, total feed and residual use is projected at 6.1 bb.
Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.08 bb.
Corn exports for the 2025-26 crop are pegged at 3.075 billion bushels, up 100 mb from September.
Exports were the only demand number raised by USDA.
USDA, however, raised old-crop ending stocks by 207 mb to raise the 2025-26 beginning stocks to 1.532 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop were raised 44 mb to 2.154 bb.
The farmgate price for the 2025-26 crop was raised 10 cents to $4 a bushel.
Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 291.66 million metric tons (mmt), up 7.48 mmt from September. Global production is forecast at 1,286.23 mmt, down slightly. Exports globally are projected at 203.47 mmt. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 281.34 mmt, down slightly from September.
For the 2024-25 crop, Brazil's production was raised 1 mmt to 136 mmt, while exports were lowered 41 mmt. Argentina's production was maintained at 50 mmt, and exports were lowered to 32 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA estimated national soybean yield at 53.0 bushels per acre, decreased from 53.5 bpa in September. Harvested acres were left unchanged at 80.3 ma.
Total U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.253 billion bushels, decreased from 4.301 bb in September. Beginning stocks and imports were estimated at 316 mb and 20 mb, respectively, leading to total supplies of 4.590 bb.
On the demand side, USDA estimates crush at 2.555 bb, while exports were 1.635 bb, decreased from 1.685 bb in September.
Residual use was pegged at 37 mb, while seed use was estimated at 73 mb, both unchanged from September.
The net result was soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels, a drop from 300 mb in September.
Total use is estimated at 4.3 bb, a reduction from 4.351 bb in September.
The national average farm gate price was pegged at $10.50, an increase from $10.00 in September.
Globally, ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year were 121.99 million metric tons, down from 123.99 in September.
USDA forecasts Brazilian farmers will harvest 175 mmt of soybeans, while Argentine growers will harvest 48.5 mmt, both unchanged from September.
WHEAT
USDA pegged U.S. wheat production at 1.985 bb, unchanged from September's Small Grains report.
USDA estimates ending stocks at 901 million bushels in November, an increase from September's estimate of 844 mb.
Wheat exports were estimated at 900 mb, which is unchanged from September, while USDA estimates the farmgate price at $5.00 per bushel, down from $5.10 in September.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 271.43 million metric tons, up from 264.06 mmt in September.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 828.89 mmt, an increase from 816.20 mmt in September.
Wheat production in Argentina was estimated at 22.0 mmt, up from the September estimate of 19.5 mmt. Australia's production was estimated at 36.0 mmt, up from 34.5 mmt in September.
Wheat production in Russia was pegged at 86.5 mmt, an increase from 85.0 mmt in September. European Union production was estimated at 142.30 mmt, an increase from 140.1 mmt in September.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report shared less-than-supportive news for the cattle and beef markets of 2025 and 2026, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"Beef production for 2025 fell by 70 million pounds from the last report in September, as fed cattle slaughter speeds have declined," Stewart said. "The similar trend is also noted for 2026 beef production, as now, the year is expected to yield 25,490 million pounds, which is down 100 million pounds from September's last report. The biggest expected reason for the decline in slaughter speeds for 2026 is because fed cattle processing is expected to remain light, and with cattle spending more time on feed, marketings will be slower for at least the first half of the year. Quarterly steer prices were also disappointing, as steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $234 (down $10), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $242 (down $5) and steers in the second quarter are expected to average $248 (down $3). Beef imports for 2025 remained unchanged, but exports for the year fell by 10 million pounds."
Friday's WASDE report also shared less-than-supportive news for the hog and pork markets of 2025 and 2026, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2025 fell by 80 million pounds, as slaughter speeds have been reduced in recent months. Pork production for 2026 was also reduced from September's last report, as production speeds aren't expected to increase anytime soon and the market will have lighter inventories at that time as well. Hog prices for 2025 and 2026 weren't supportive either as hogs in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $66 (down $3), but hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 and hogs in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $70 (both of which are unchanged from September's data). Pork imports for 2025 grew by 10 million pounds from September's last report, but exports remain unchanged for the year."
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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST, on Friday, Nov. 14, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's November WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26 |
|
|
|
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
2024-25 |
| Corn |
16,752 |
16,528 |
16,748 |
16,380 |
16,814 |
14,867 |
| Soybeans |
4,253 |
4,265 |
4,420 |
4,152 |
4,301 |
4,366 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2025-26 (WASDE) |
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
2024-25 |
| Corn |
186 |
183.5 |
186.0 |
182.0 |
186.7 |
179.3 |
| Soybeans |
53 |
53.0 |
53.8 |
51.7 |
53.5 |
50.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2025-26 |
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
2024-25 |
| Corn |
90.0 |
90.0 |
90.5 |
89.3 |
90.0 |
82.9 |
| Soybeans |
80.3 |
80.3 |
80.3 |
80.0 |
80.3 |
86.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26 |
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
|
| Corn |
2,154 |
2,130 |
2,470 |
1,944 |
2,110 |
|
| Soybeans |
290 |
292 |
418 |
187 |
300 |
|
| Wheat |
901 |
862 |
913 |
828 |
844 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 |
|
|
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
|
| Corn |
291.7 |
285.6 |
289.3 |
284.0 |
284.2 |
|
| Soybeans |
123.3 |
123.4 |
124.0 |
122.3 |
123.6 |
|
| Wheat |
261.4 |
262.6 |
263.7 |
262.0 |
262.4 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26 |
|
|
| |
Nov |
Avg |
High |
Low |
Sep |
|
| Corn |
281.3 |
283.0 |
284.9 |
280.0 |
281.4 |
|
| Soybeans |
122.0 |
124.6 |
126.0 |
123.0 |
124.0 |
|
| Wheat |
271.4 |
266.1 |
270.0 |
264.0 |
264.1 |
|
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